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Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PPHM)
F1Q2011 Earnings Call Transcript
September 9, 2010 4:30 pm ET
Complete Story » Doc Econ submits:
Today's New York Times article on "illegal" Chinese behavior favoring their domestic producers of clean energy products with massive subsidies brings up the question of whether the American clean energy industry can compete with China. The answer is no. Not today and not tomorrow either.
There may be new products or inventions in the future which Americans produce and the Chinese are only left to imitate. However, in terms of today's industry, Chinese manufacturing of solar cells, wind turbines, and other equipment is far beyond that of America. The Chinese government has executed a coordinated trade policy to nurse this clean energy industry domestically for years.
Complete Story »
Verizon (VZ) has just increased its dividend and now offers a yield of 6.5%. There is nothing remarkable about this, all across the world world mobile operators offer fat yields, resilient business models and low valuations. Furthermore, mobile stocks are beginning to outperform other high yielding stocks, such as utilities. In Japan, NTT DoCoMo (DCM) is up around 20% in dollar terms, making it on of the best performing mega caps in the world.
DoCoMo highlights another interesting point about mobile stocks, which is that besides the yield, mobile operators are beginning to grow thanks to an explosion in data revenues. This time next year more than half of DoCoMo’s subscriber revenue is likely to come from data rather than voice.
Complete Story » Energy Burrito submits:
Sometimes it is very easy to get whirlwinded up in capital markets, believing we are at an absolute tipping point, an extremity of extremities, a turn signal the likes of which we have never seen before, only for prices to continue on and on. And on. Markets, like humans, are not dictated wholly by logic, and we need to remember: they too provide tales of the unexpected.
So despite the utter brilliance of the turbulence they provide, sometimes we need - and wish - for an anti-outlier: an expected outcome. So it is with that in mind, I present three such hopes:
Complete Story » Charles Lewis Sizemore submits:
In pre-republican France, upon the passing of a sitting monarch the Duc d'Uzès would proclaim “The King is dead. Long live the King!”
The idea, of course, was that a new king was rising up to take the place of the old. The Crown as an institution was alive and well; it was just that the head under it had changed.
Complete Story » Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
The recent pullback in the fixed income market is starting to put a dent in the long-term uptrend for the asset class. For the last six months, Treasuries and most corporates have traded upward in a very tight ordely channel.
As shown below in the chart of the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), however, the bottom of the uptrend has been broken in recent days. Conversely, the 10-Year Treasury Yield broke above the top of its downtrend channel in recent days as well. If the pattern doesn't correct quickly, the technicals suggest that fixed income could be in store for some rough action going forward. (Click to enlarge)
Complete Story » James Quinn submits:
Having worked for a big box retailer for 14 years, I understand the dynamics of a high growth rollout of stores as a key to increasing market share and profits. Some of the best retail names in the US have practiced the identical strategy of concentrating many stores in each market to drive the small competitors out of business. This strategy worked wonders for Lowe's (LOW), Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS) during the early part of this decade. The combination of solid same store sales and opening new stores is a fantastic combination during good times. The results actually make the CEOs of these companies think they are brilliant. Their store expansion models based on rosy assumptions are followed like they can’t go wrong.
What these CEOs didn’t realize was that their expansion plans were based on lies and frauds. If they had advisors who could give them a reality check, they could have avoided the massive downsizing that awaits them. Their hubris didn’t leave room for a reality check. The population of the US has grown from 281 million in 2000 to approximately 308 million today. We’ve had a 10% population increase in 10 years. Consumer expenditures have grown from $6.7 trillion in 2000 to $10.3 trillion today. This is a 54% increase over the course of the decade. Amazingly, real average weekly earnings have only gone up by 6% in the last decade.
Complete Story » Garrick Hileman submits:
If you're following the ongoing European sovereign debt and banking crisis, expect to hear increasing discussion of whether eurozone countries should "default now or default later?"
Eurozone Up Against The Ropes (Again)
Complete Story » ETF Database submits:
After starting the day higher, U.S. equity markets fell back during Thursday trading but still managed to finish the day in the green. The S&P 500 led on the upside with a gain of 0.5% while the Nasdaq and the Dow both gained 0.3%. Commodities fell back on the day with oil and gold both retreating roughly 0.8% while U.S. Treasury securities continued their decline with the 10-Year note’s yield surging to 2.76% and the 2 year rising to 0.56% as investors embraced risky assets.
The big movers of the day were reports out of Washington which suggested that the U.S. economic situation may be improving slightly. The trade deficit shrank by 14% in July thanks to a 1.8% boost in exports and a similar loss in imports. “The rise in exports supports the view that the recovery in manufacturing is alive and well, while the decline in imports suggests that the consumer is still focused on boosting savings, not spending,” economist Steven Ricchiuto of Mizuho Securities wrote in an email. Possibly thanks to this surge in exports, the weekly jobless claims declined modestly by 27,000 to 451,000 for the week; a far bigger decrease than analyst estimates which had projected jobless claims of 470,000. However, some cautioned that this may just be the result of the holiday shortened week and that this drop may nothing more than a Labor Day anomaly.
Complete Story » Bondsquawk submits:
By Rom Badilla
Treasury prices fell, pushing yields higher and stocks ended in the green for a second day as improved jobless claims and narrowed trade deficit eased concerns about the U.S. economic recovery. Albeit at an elevated level, jobless claims declined, giving investors an increased appetite for stocks. The recent flood of corporate debt to the markets further steered investors from Treasuries. The euro weakened, gold and crude spot prices declined.
Complete Story » The Macro Trader submits:
As of late we have heard a lot about how sentiment was too bearish and that this justified the market rally.
While we no doubt got a rally, we have to question the idea that sentiment is overdone to the downside. In the world of sentiment indicators there are more then a few ways to look at things. You can look at polls like Investors Intelligence or the AAII numbers, you can look at anecdotal indicators like covers at the magazine rack or listening to your shoeshine boy, and finally you can look at market derived indicators.
Complete Story » Karl Denninger submits:
It is often said by the "pundits" that the stock market knows all before it happens, and prices it in.
Really?
Complete Story » Mark J. Perry submits: (Click to enlarge)
The chart above shows monthly unemployment rates from: a) January 1931 to December 1940 (120 months) and b) January 2007 to August 2010.
We hear a lot of comparisons between the recent recession and the Great Depression, and the chart above shows that those comparisons are hugely exaggerated. Consider the fact that there were 127 consecutive months of double-digit unemployment rates between November 1930 and May 1941, and 21 consecutive months with unemployment above 20% from April 1932 to December 1933, with a maximum of 25.6% in May of 1933. Then compare that to the recent recession, where there were only three consecutive months of double-digit unemployment rates, with a maximum rate of 10.1% in October 2009.
Complete Story » Mark J. Perry submits:
(Click to enlarge)
WASHINGTON , D.C. – Sept. 9, 2010 – "The Association of American Railroads today reported weekly rail carload volume set a new 2010 record for the second consecutive week. U.S. railroads originated 305,000 carloads during the week ending Sept. 4, 2010, up 6.9 percent compared with the same week in 2009, and at comparable levels to the same week in 2008 (see charts above). The 2008 comparison week included the Labor Day holiday while the corresponding weeks in both 2010 and 2009 did not. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008.
Complete Story »
Stewart Enterprises, Inc. (STEI)
F3Q2010 Earnings Call Transcript
September 9, 2010 11:00 am ET
Complete Story » Felix Salmon submits:
I’m not entirely clear on what Bloomberg’s Josiane Kremer is trying to say here, on the subject of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund loading up on Greek debt:
“The point is, do you expect these guys to default?” said Harvinder Sian, senior fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, in an interview. “Norway has taken the view that they will not. The Greek holdings are particularly interesting because the consensus in the market is that they will at some point restructure or default.”
Complete Story » Ian Wyatt submits:
It's clear that the economy is recovering at a much slower pace than previously thought. A few key sectors of the economy are preventing a quick recovery. The first, and probably the most important, is the labor market. In Ben Bernanke's late August update on the state of the US economy he had this to say about the labor market:
"Incoming data on the labor market have remained disappointing. Private-sector employment has grown only sluggishly".
Complete Story » Andrew Wilkinson submits:
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) – A massive put spread purchased on the XLE, an exchange-traded fund designed to correspond to the performance of the Energy Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, points perhaps to one investor’s expectation that the price of the fund’s shares are set to decline ahead of September expiration day. Shares of the fund are currently up 0.40% at $54.06 as of 3:45 pm ET. It looks like the pessimistic player picked up approximately 40,000 puts at the September $53 strike for an average premium of $0.21 each, and sold about the same number of puts at the lower September $52 strike at an average premium of $0.44 a-pop. Net premium paid to purchase the spread amounts to $0.23 per contract. The investor responsible for the transaction stands ready to make money if shares of the XLE fall 2.4% from the current price of $54.06 to breach the effective breakeven point at $52.77 by expiration next Friday. Maximum potential profits of $0.77 per contract – for a total of $3,080 million – are available to the trader if the XLE’s shares drop 3.8% to slip beneath $52.00 by expiration day.
Crocs, Inc. (CROX) – The footwear firm’s shares plunged 15.5% in afternoon trading to touch down at an intraday low of $11.68. Sharp share price erosion spurred put buying by options traders expecting the stock to continue lower ahead of October expiration. Investors purchased approximately 5,100 now in-the-money puts at the October $12 strike for an average premium of $0.85 each. Put players make money if shares fall another 4.5% from today’s low of $11.68 to breach the average breakeven point at $11.15 by expiration day next month. Options implied volatility on the shoe maker shot up 26.7% to 66.39% as of 3:40 pm ET.
Complete Story » Gary Gordon submits:
InTrade.com currently predicts a 70% chance that Republicans will control the House Of Representatives after the 2010 elections. The site’s prediction market platform has Republican chances of claiming the Senate at approximately 28%.
Indeed, many expect big changes after the mid-terms. In fact, there’s a growing sense of giddiness about how high the markets might climb… particularly, if the entire make-up of Congress shifts.
Complete Story » Doug Short submits:
Once upon a time, market volume, in combination with price, was a useful indicator. Or make that indicators (plural), including Rate of Change, Volume Oscillator, On Balance Volume, Price and Volume Trend, Accumulation Distribution, Chaikin Oscillator, Money Flow Indicator, etc.
Even so, S&P 500 volume has been falling since early May with no sign yet of a post-summer seasonal increase. Of course, we're still in the holiday shortened week following Labor Day. But look at the 2009 volume pattern on the chart. Where was the volume to confirm the market advance after a choppy October?
Complete Story » George Fisher submits:
Income investments are usually acquired for the long term. Over time, building a section of one’s portfolio with selections purchased for speculative income could be a strategy employed by investors to increase cash income. Searching out controversial, not well known, or turn-around stock opportunities that offer higher yields can be rewarding both for cash income and for capital gains potential. However, with the higher yields usually comes with a higher risk to capital.
A great method of building a speculative income portfolio is to dedicate a portion of realized capital gains to higher yield investments. “Nibbling in”, or dollar cost averaging, an income stock is a proven method of building a respectable position over time.
Complete Story » Ian Wyatt submits:
Last Thursday, September 3, I suggested that Daily Profit readers might want get some exposure to the homebuilders through a position in Beazer Homes (BZH).
Our readers have made money on the builders before. I recommended bottom-fishing Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) around $1.90 a share last year. But after the surprise +5% jump in pending home sales for July, the upside story for the builders, and Beazer, just became a lot more compelling.
Complete Story » ETF Database submits:
As U.S. equity markets continue to trend sideways, investors have moved towards traditional safe havens such as bonds and gold in order to protect their assets from the financial storm. Many have also embraced more recession prove industries as well for their equity exposure, with funds focused on the consumer staples and utility sectors standing out as attractive to investors looking to dial down the risk without fleeing equities altogether. Some have ventured beyond traditional big names in these sectors and have looked at smaller cap companies that may provide investors with a higher level of risk in a lower risk industry.
A great example of this is the Piedmont Natural Gas company (PNY), a small utility company with a market cap under $2 billion that pays out a handsome dividend yield of 4%. As the name suggests, the company focuses on natural gas distribution in much of the mid-Atlantic and serves nearly one million retail customers. The company will be in focus today due to its earnings report, which is likely to show a loss for the company. Analysts, on average, expect the company to post a loss of 11 cents per share on revenue of $184.88 million. In the year ago quarter, the company posted a loss of 10 cents per share on revenue of $180.20 million.
Complete Story » ETF Database submits:
Earlier today the World Economic Forum released its yearly Global Competitiveness Report, which ranks 139 countries in the world on a variety of factors the Forum believes determines the level of productivity of a country, including the set of institutions, policies, and government programs. The Forum believes that this rate of productivity “sets the sustainable level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy. In other words, more competitive economies tend to be able to produce higher levels of income for their citizens.” Not surprisingly, the countries at the top of the list tend to be rich, market-driven economies known for solid business practices or world-class institutions that give them competitive advantages over their regional rivals.
The rankings are calculated from both publicly available data and the Executive Opinion Survey, a comprehensive annual survey conducted by the World Economic Forum together with its network of Partner Institutes (leading research institutes and business organizations) in the countries covered by the Report. While the usual suspects dominated the top of the list–a host of Nordic countries, along with developed markets in Asia and North America occupied most of the top spots–there were a few surprises.
Complete Story » Cullen Roche submits:
JP Morgan is joining me in acknowldging that policymakers appear to be out of ammo:
“Have policymakers run out of ammunition? Unless they become a lot more adventurous, the answer is probably yes, or at least almost, as monetary policy is already max stimulative and public finances are in a precarious condition. Mr. Bernanke tried to allay market fear by assuring us the FOMC will do “all that it can” to assure recovery, but what is that exactly? He listed three potential added measures: more QE buying of USTs; assuring markets it will keep rates on hold for longer; and paying less interest on excess reserves. The first two ought to work through lowering bond yields. We see indeed a decent probability that the Fed will announce another $500 billion-$1 trillion of QE UST buying during the second half of September. With bond yields already at historic lows and credit demand weak, these measures are unlikely to have much impact on the economy.”
Complete Story » optionMONSTER submits:
By Chris McKhann
A number of news organizations have reported on the new VIX Weekly options that will be rolled out by the CBOE later this month, but most have missed the important point that they are not going to be available to most retail traders.
Complete Story » Brooks McFeely submits:
4:17 PM, Sep 9, 2010 --
- NYSE up 33.95 (+0.49%) to 7,033.89
- DJIA up 28.23 (+0.3%) to 10,415
- S&P 500 up 5.31 (+0.48%) to 1,104
- Nasdaq up 7.33 (+0.3%) to 2,236
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
Complete Story » Energy and Capital submits:
By Keith Kohl
Eventually, you'll be forced to make a decision concerning peak oil.
Believe it or not, there are still people out there that believe it's a massive scam or cover-up.
Complete Story » Zacks.com submits:
By Dirk van Dijk
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance fell to 451,000, a drop of 27,000 from last week. That is good news, but only in terms of the direction. After several weeks in a row of new claims shooting higher, the upward momentum has been reversed, with three straight weeks of declines -- but initial claims remain far too high.
Complete Story » Double Dividend Stocks submits:
Dow dividend stocks aren't usually mentioned in the world of high dividend stocks, but selling cash secured puts is a way you can earn some impressive double-digit annualized yields out of even these modest dividend paying stocks.
We screened for the top 7 put selling yields for DOW dividend stocks and came up with these 7 option trades:
Complete Story »
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals CEO Discusses F1Q2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PPHM)
F1Q2011 Earnings Call Transcript
September 9, 2010 4:30 pm ET
The U.S. Will Never, Ever Catch China in Clean Energy - Not a Reason to Stop Investing
Today's New York Times article on "illegal" Chinese behavior favoring their domestic producers of clean energy products with massive subsidies brings up the question of whether the American clean energy industry can compete with China. The answer is no. Not today and not tomorrow either.
There may be new products or inventions in the future which Americans produce and the Chinese are only left to imitate. However, in terms of today's industry, Chinese manufacturing of solar cells, wind turbines, and other equipment is far beyond that of America. The Chinese government has executed a coordinated trade policy to nurse this clean energy industry domestically for years.
Mobile Operators Offer Fat Yields and Growth via Data Explosion
Verizon (VZ) has just increased its dividend and now offers a yield of 6.5%. There is nothing remarkable about this, all across the world world mobile operators offer fat yields, resilient business models and low valuations. Furthermore, mobile stocks are beginning to outperform other high yielding stocks, such as utilities. In Japan, NTT DoCoMo (DCM) is up around 20% in dollar terms, making it on of the best performing mega caps in the world.
DoCoMo highlights another interesting point about mobile stocks, which is that besides the yield, mobile operators are beginning to grow thanks to an explosion in data revenues. This time next year more than half of DoCoMo’s subscriber revenue is likely to come from data rather than voice.
No Alarms and No Surprises... From Hurricanes, OPEC or GDP
Sometimes it is very easy to get whirlwinded up in capital markets, believing we are at an absolute tipping point, an extremity of extremities, a turn signal the likes of which we have never seen before, only for prices to continue on and on. And on. Markets, like humans, are not dictated wholly by logic, and we need to remember: they too provide tales of the unexpected.
So despite the utter brilliance of the turbulence they provide, sometimes we need - and wish - for an anti-outlier: an expected outcome. So it is with that in mind, I present three such hopes:
The Cult of Equity Is Dead; Long Live Equities.
In pre-republican France, upon the passing of a sitting monarch the Duc d'Uzès would proclaim “The King is dead. Long live the King!”
The idea, of course, was that a new king was rising up to take the place of the old. The Crown as an institution was alive and well; it was just that the head under it had changed.
A Breakdown in Fixed Income?
The recent pullback in the fixed income market is starting to put a dent in the long-term uptrend for the asset class. For the last six months, Treasuries and most corporates have traded upward in a very tight ordely channel.
As shown below in the chart of the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), however, the bottom of the uptrend has been broken in recent days. Conversely, the 10-Year Treasury Yield broke above the top of its downtrend channel in recent days as well. If the pattern doesn't correct quickly, the technicals suggest that fixed income could be in store for some rough action going forward. (Click to enlarge)
Retailers' Reality Check Time
Having worked for a big box retailer for 14 years, I understand the dynamics of a high growth rollout of stores as a key to increasing market share and profits. Some of the best retail names in the US have practiced the identical strategy of concentrating many stores in each market to drive the small competitors out of business. This strategy worked wonders for Lowe's (LOW), Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS) during the early part of this decade. The combination of solid same store sales and opening new stores is a fantastic combination during good times. The results actually make the CEOs of these companies think they are brilliant. Their store expansion models based on rosy assumptions are followed like they can’t go wrong.
What these CEOs didn’t realize was that their expansion plans were based on lies and frauds. If they had advisors who could give them a reality check, they could have avoided the massive downsizing that awaits them. Their hubris didn’t leave room for a reality check. The population of the US has grown from 281 million in 2000 to approximately 308 million today. We’ve had a 10% population increase in 10 years. Consumer expenditures have grown from $6.7 trillion in 2000 to $10.3 trillion today. This is a 54% increase over the course of the decade. Amazingly, real average weekly earnings have only gone up by 6% in the last decade.
European Sovereign Debt: Default Now or Default Later?
If you're following the ongoing European sovereign debt and banking crisis, expect to hear increasing discussion of whether eurozone countries should "default now or default later?"
Eurozone Up Against The Ropes (Again)
Thursday ETF Wrap-Up: EPP Surges, JJC Falls
After starting the day higher, U.S. equity markets fell back during Thursday trading but still managed to finish the day in the green. The S&P 500 led on the upside with a gain of 0.5% while the Nasdaq and the Dow both gained 0.3%. Commodities fell back on the day with oil and gold both retreating roughly 0.8% while U.S. Treasury securities continued their decline with the 10-Year note’s yield surging to 2.76% and the 2 year rising to 0.56% as investors embraced risky assets.
The big movers of the day were reports out of Washington which suggested that the U.S. economic situation may be improving slightly. The trade deficit shrank by 14% in July thanks to a 1.8% boost in exports and a similar loss in imports. “The rise in exports supports the view that the recovery in manufacturing is alive and well, while the decline in imports suggests that the consumer is still focused on boosting savings, not spending,” economist Steven Ricchiuto of Mizuho Securities wrote in an email. Possibly thanks to this surge in exports, the weekly jobless claims declined modestly by 27,000 to 451,000 for the week; a far bigger decrease than analyst estimates which had projected jobless claims of 470,000. However, some cautioned that this may just be the result of the holiday shortened week and that this drop may nothing more than a Labor Day anomaly.
Thursday Bond Market Recap
By Rom Badilla
Treasury prices fell, pushing yields higher and stocks ended in the green for a second day as improved jobless claims and narrowed trade deficit eased concerns about the U.S. economic recovery. Albeit at an elevated level, jobless claims declined, giving investors an increased appetite for stocks. The recent flood of corporate debt to the markets further steered investors from Treasuries. The euro weakened, gold and crude spot prices declined.
Sentiment Indicator Disconnect
As of late we have heard a lot about how sentiment was too bearish and that this justified the market rally.
While we no doubt got a rally, we have to question the idea that sentiment is overdone to the downside. In the world of sentiment indicators there are more then a few ways to look at things. You can look at polls like Investors Intelligence or the AAII numbers, you can look at anecdotal indicators like covers at the magazine rack or listening to your shoeshine boy, and finally you can look at market derived indicators.
What MasterCard and Visa Show About Market Disconnects
It is often said by the "pundits" that the stock market knows all before it happens, and prices it in.
Really?
A Glance at Unemployment: 1930s vs. Today
The chart above shows monthly unemployment rates from: a) January 1931 to December 1940 (120 months) and b) January 2007 to August 2010.
We hear a lot of comparisons between the recent recession and the Great Depression, and the chart above shows that those comparisons are hugely exaggerated. Consider the fact that there were 127 consecutive months of double-digit unemployment rates between November 1930 and May 1941, and 21 consecutive months with unemployment above 20% from April 1932 to December 1933, with a maximum of 25.6% in May of 1933. Then compare that to the recent recession, where there were only three consecutive months of double-digit unemployment rates, with a maximum rate of 10.1% in October 2009.
Weekly Rail Volume on the Rise
(Click to enlarge)
WASHINGTON , D.C. – Sept. 9, 2010 – "The Association of American Railroads today reported weekly rail carload volume set a new 2010 record for the second consecutive week. U.S. railroads originated 305,000 carloads during the week ending Sept. 4, 2010, up 6.9 percent compared with the same week in 2009, and at comparable levels to the same week in 2008 (see charts above). The 2008 comparison week included the Labor Day holiday while the corresponding weeks in both 2010 and 2009 did not. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008.
Stewart Enterprises CEO Discusses F3Q2010 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Norway's Long Greece
I’m not entirely clear on what Bloomberg’s Josiane Kremer is trying to say here, on the subject of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund loading up on Greek debt:
“The point is, do you expect these guys to default?” said Harvinder Sian, senior fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, in an interview. “Norway has taken the view that they will not. The Greek holdings are particularly interesting because the consensus in the market is that they will at some point restructure or default.”
How to Invest for Income When Interest Rates Are Low
It's clear that the economy is recovering at a much slower pace than previously thought. A few key sectors of the economy are preventing a quick recovery. The first, and probably the most important, is the labor market. In Ben Bernanke's late August update on the state of the US economy he had this to say about the labor market:
"Incoming data on the labor market have remained disappointing. Private-sector employment has grown only sluggishly".
Thursday Options Update: XLE, CROX, COCO, PCX, EBAY, NTAP, MW, ARG, AXL
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) – A massive put spread purchased on the XLE, an exchange-traded fund designed to correspond to the performance of the Energy Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, points perhaps to one investor’s expectation that the price of the fund’s shares are set to decline ahead of September expiration day. Shares of the fund are currently up 0.40% at $54.06 as of 3:45 pm ET. It looks like the pessimistic player picked up approximately 40,000 puts at the September $53 strike for an average premium of $0.21 each, and sold about the same number of puts at the lower September $52 strike at an average premium of $0.44 a-pop. Net premium paid to purchase the spread amounts to $0.23 per contract. The investor responsible for the transaction stands ready to make money if shares of the XLE fall 2.4% from the current price of $54.06 to breach the effective breakeven point at $52.77 by expiration next Friday. Maximum potential profits of $0.77 per contract – for a total of $3,080 million – are available to the trader if the XLE’s shares drop 3.8% to slip beneath $52.00 by expiration day.
Crocs, Inc. (CROX) – The footwear firm’s shares plunged 15.5% in afternoon trading to touch down at an intraday low of $11.68. Sharp share price erosion spurred put buying by options traders expecting the stock to continue lower ahead of October expiration. Investors purchased approximately 5,100 now in-the-money puts at the October $12 strike for an average premium of $0.85 each. Put players make money if shares fall another 4.5% from today’s low of $11.68 to breach the average breakeven point at $11.15 by expiration day next month. Options implied volatility on the shoe maker shot up 26.7% to 66.39% as of 3:40 pm ET.
Sector ETFs: Strength in Avoiding New Government Intervention
InTrade.com currently predicts a 70% chance that Republicans will control the House Of Representatives after the 2010 elections. The site’s prediction market platform has Republican chances of claiming the Senate at approximately 28%.
Indeed, many expect big changes after the mid-terms. In fact, there’s a growing sense of giddiness about how high the markets might climb… particularly, if the entire make-up of Congress shifts.
The Eerie Implications of Market Volume and Mutual Fund Flows
Once upon a time, market volume, in combination with price, was a useful indicator. Or make that indicators (plural), including Rate of Change, Volume Oscillator, On Balance Volume, Price and Volume Trend, Accumulation Distribution, Chaikin Oscillator, Money Flow Indicator, etc.
Even so, S&P 500 volume has been falling since early May with no sign yet of a post-summer seasonal increase. Of course, we're still in the holiday shortened week following Labor Day. But look at the 2009 volume pattern on the chart. Where was the volume to confirm the market advance after a choppy October?
